A stagestructured population model for the florida manatee trichechus manatus latirostris was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter. As this is a new method in population biology for evaluating ergodicity, each result was double checked with simulation of population dynamics using stage. Impacts to species inhabiting warm climates are often believed to be small relative to those of species living in cooler climates. Most discussions of impacts of climate change have focused on species from temperate or polar regions. The broad set of analytical methods used to judge whether a population or set of populations meets such a standard is usually called population viability analysis, or pva. Behaviour patterns of bottlenose dolphins tursiops truncatus relative to tidal state, time. A new approach to estimate fecundity rate from inter. Abundance of blue and humpback whales in the eastern north pacific estimated by capturerecapture and linetransect methods. The new policy defines a significant portion of a species or populations range as any portion whose contribution to the viability of the listed species or population throughout its entire. Accurate estimates of fecundity rate are key to population assessments and effectively direct conservation efforts. The population dynamics of red and western grey kangaroos in arid new south wales australia. Manatees inhabit the upper reaches of the niger river to guinea and occur throughout the inland delta of mali.
The literature describing methods for estimating animal abundance and related parameters continues to grow. Population ecology of bottlenose dolphins tursiops truncatus off the east coast of scotland. Pdf a stochastic, stagebased population model was developed to describe the life history and forecast the population dynamics of the florida manatee. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. At least two possible origins for manatus have been suggested.
After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique counts of ear bone growth layers, we fit agelength data to the schnute growth model separately by sex and season. A stage based model of manatee population dynamics. A core stochastic population projection model for florida. Resightings of recognizable individual florida manatees, trichechus manatus latirostris, in sarasota bay provided information on life history and reproductive parameters. A core stochastic population projection model for florida manatees. Pdf a stagebased population model for loggerhead sea. An interactive photographmatching software initially developed for gray seals hiby and lovell 1990 was modified to accommodate photographs of ventrums of harbor seals software developed by conservation research ltd. Reynolds, iii, determination of manatee population trends along the atlantic coast of florida using a bayesian approach with temperatureadjusted aerial survey data, marine mammal science. Interactive software used for fitting a 3dimensional body model to harbor seals phoca vitulina richardii in photographs for extraction of fingerprints or identifierarrays ias. Analysis of aerial survey data on florida manatee using markov chain monte carlo. Read multistate capturerecapture analysis under imperfect state observation.
An investigation of wintering florida manatee population. Status and threats analysis for the florida manatee trichechus. Status and threats analysis for the florida manatee. Ideally, the demographic importance of events during each season should be evaluated by incorporating the variation in vital rates throughout the life cycle into a model of population growth, and estimating the sensitivity of population dynamics to changes in seasonal parameters caswell 2001. That document provided important insights, but it is now 12 years old, and is based on data older than that. In accordance with the marine mammal protection act of 1972, as amended mmpa, and its implementing regulations, we, the u. Evaluating and improving countbased population inference. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional. Ellison2 1department of biology, university of vermont, burlington, vermont 05405 usa 2harvard forest, harvard university, petersham, massachusetts 066 usa abstract. Detection and identification of manatee individual. Trichechus manatus latirostris usgs publications repository. Population model the manatee core biological model cbm runge and others, 2007a was used as the modeling framework for this analysis. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10. Using the manatee core biological model, we estimated the probability of the florida manatee population on either the atlantic or gulf coast falling below 500 adults in.
Another use of life tables is in species conservation efforts, such as in. Eric swain has lived in miami for over 37 years and researched south florida hydrology with the usgs since 1988. Final florida manatee sar us fish and wildlife service. A major part of this exercise will explore the effects of changing patterns of survival and reproduction on population dynamics. Fish and wildlife service service, have developed a draft revised marine mammal stock assessment report sar. In a robust design analysis of longterm photodocumented sighting histories of the endangered florida manatee, i found high survival rates, high rates of nonrandom temporary emigration, significant timedependence, and a diversity of factors affecting temporary emigration that made it difficult to model emigration in any meaningful fashion. The generic name of the manatees, trichechus, comes from the greek words trichos hair and ekh to have, referring to the sparse body hairs and abundant facial hairs and bristles. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10yr period. For the blackthroated blue warbler population, our interest lies in estimating the stageyearling or adult and sexspecific survival rates and the annual number of yearlings and adults that recruit to the. Perhaps, but there is an added cogency to specific advice on a specific decision given to an agency by its own inhouse advisory body especially when its on the public record. This model is a stagebased projection model for florida. Focus on mpas 2015 marine protected areas smart investments in ocean health mpas. Population ecology of bottlenose dolphins tursiops.
Multistate capturerecapture analysis under imperfect. However, it is evident that some tropicalsubtropical species, including some marine megafauna may face potentially serious. A stochastic, stagebased population model was developed to describe the life. Recovery plan for the puerto rico population of the west indian manatee trichechus manatus manatus l. With over publications in water resources and fluid mechanics, eric has developed a variety of analyses and models to understand the hydrologic system and provide information for water management. Manatee core biological model page 2 ofr 20071082, march 2007 abstract a stochastic, stagebased population model was developed to describe the life history and forecast the population dynamics of the florida manatee trichechus manatus latirostris in. On reducibility and ergodicity of population projection. Bayesian models are naturally equipped to provide recursive inference because they can formally reconcile new data and existing scientific information.
Survival rate estimates of florida manatees trichechus manatus latirostris using carcass recovery data by lisa kimberley schwarz a dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of doctor of philosophy in biological sciences montana state university bozeman, montana october 2007. This model is a stagebased projection model for florida manatees, incorporating environmental and demographic stochasticity, catastrophes, density dependence, and longterm change in carrying capacity. The florida manatee, trichechus manatus latirostris, is a subspecies of west indian manatee that occurs almost exclusively in the southeastern united states at the northern limit of the species range. The models of cormack, jolly and seber cjs are remarkable in providing a rich set of inferences about population survival, recruitment, abundance and even sampling probabilities from a seemingly limited data source. In this work we present a stage based system dynamics model designed to. Smart investments in ocean health pdf free download. Seasonal variation is due in part to the influence of warm mineral springs sarasota county. The analyzed parameters were base mortality life stage and. At the core of this framework is a predictive stagebased model for milkweed population dynamics, with characterization of the key management uncertainty.
We evaluated spring and fall counts, fall indices, and model based predictions for the rocky mountain population rmp of sandhill cranes antigone canadensis by integrating juvenile recruitment, harvest, and survival into a stochastic stagebased population model. We will use the climate change scenarios to explore changes to the american alligator population in the everglades using the atlss alligator population model. Inunguis refers to the lack of nails on the pectoral flippers of the amazonian manatee. A stochastic, stage based population model was developed to describe the life history and forecast the population dynamics of the florida manatee trichechus manatus latirostris in four separate. Literature cited for the final rule to establish a manatee. An introduction to adaptive management for threatened and. A stochastic, stagebased population model was developed to describe the life history and forecast the population dynamics of the florida manatee trichechus manatus latirostris in. We present a new approach to estimate fecundity rate based on the probability of a female giving birth, conditional on a previous birth t years ago, from which an expected inter. Winter habitat preferences for florida manatees and. Luckily, a good fraction of what was rejected has been published in mollet and cailliet 2003, pdf, albeit it is all appears in an appendix using terse notation. Smart investments in ocean health 1 wwf is one of the worlds largest and most experienced independent conservation organizations, with over 5 million supporters and a global network active in more than 100 countries. Evaluation of a computerassisted photographmatching.
Making recursive bayesian inference accessible deepai. These parameters have been documented at winter aggregation sites, but few data existed for floridas west coast at non. Finally, these parameters were used in a clustering stage based on expectation maximization em and gaussian mixtures models gmm. Such models are frequently used to explore population viability, to examine the importance of individual life stages to perturbations, and to project population dynamics into the future when examining different management strategies. Report from the manatee population status working group florida manatee recovery and implementation team to the usfws, jacksonville, fl. Service identifies the florida manatee population as a single stock. Matrix population growth models are standard tools for forecasting popu.
In every case, results from simulation of the model agreed with results from. This model will be updated and used for the suwannee basin as well. Contour plot of the asymptotic population growth rate. This species is found in the coastal and riverine waters of 21 countries in central and west africa, from senegal to angola. We used simulation to evaluate population indices from the hbts model and the.
In the identification stage, a set of statistical and temporal features, such as fundamental frequency, meanroughness logarithm, and roughness standard deviation, were used to describe each vocalization. System dynamics modeling incorporates the interactions between these elements more easily than a matrix approach, and may yield a clearer understanding of how they can in. Individualbased models ibms have become a popular tool. Pdf a core stochastic popultion projection model for florida.
Inferences about population dynamics from count data using. The program has been very successful over its first five years, acquiring or protecting over 6,400 ha, particularly in a primary core area. Our results show that the manatee population would have collapsed quite. Using stagebased system dynamics modeling for demographic. Recommendations for improving recovery criteria under the. Information based on florida manatee population demographic data obtained from photo identification. Inference from a deterministic population dynamics model for bowhead whales. Manatee core biological model page 2 ofr 20071082, march 2007 abstract a stochastic, stage based population model was developed to describe the life history and forecast the population dynamics of the florida manatee trichechus manatus latirostris in four separate regions of florida. Ecology and conservation of bottlenose dolphins tursiops. A stage based population model for loggerhead sea turtles and implications for conservation article pdf available in ecology 685 october 1987 with 2,540 reads how we measure reads. Over time, however, rapidly increasing land values coupled with a better understanding of natural systems and population dynamics of rare species, have altered the emphasis of the program. A stagestructured population model for the florida manatee trichechus manatus latirostris was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. Using the manatee core biological model, we estimated the probability of the florida manatee population on either the atlantic or gulf coast falling below 500 adults in the next 150 years to be 0. Although we use this acronym, we emphasize that we are not advocating solely for matrix population models or similar approaches e.
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